Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock logo FIGR - Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $62.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $75.00
LOW: $49.00
MEDIAN: $63.50
CONSENSUS: $62.75
UPSIDE: 98.43%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 1.7% above fair value
Current Price $31.62
Bear Case $18.82 40.5% downside ($18.82 - $31.62) / $31.62 = -40.5% ROTCE 8.2% → 2.08x TBV
Fair Value $31.10 1.6% downside ($31.10 - $31.62) / $31.62 = -1.6% ROTCE 10.9% → 3.45x TBV
Bull Case $36.10 14.2% upside ($36.10 - $31.62) / $31.62 = 14.2% ROTCE 12.5% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

10.9%
6.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (10.9%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 4.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $62.75 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $31.10 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $62.75 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly