FG - F&G Annuities & Life, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$32.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$33.00
LOW:
$31.00
MEDIAN:
$32.00
CONSENSUS:
$32.00
UPSIDE:
38.89%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
5.5%
11.3%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (5.5%) vs. cost of equity (11.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.64x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 5.5% vs. 11.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $36.26 tangible book, implying $73.20 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$32.00
Analyst Range
$31.00 – $33.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
129%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (5.5%) is below the minimum investors require (11.3%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $32.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 129% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly