F&G Annuities & Life, Inc. logo FG - F&G Annuities & Life, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $24.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $24.00
LOW: $24.00
MEDIAN: $24.00
CONSENSUS: $24.00
UPSIDE: 24.61%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 73.7% below fair value
Current Price $19.26
Bear Case $51.24 166.0% upside ($51.24 - $19.26) / $19.26 = 166.0% ROTCE 4.1% → 0.30x TBV
Fair Value $73.20 280.1% upside ($73.20 - $19.26) / $19.26 = 280.1% ROTCE 5.5% → 0.30x TBV
Bull Case $95.16 394.1% upside ($95.16 - $19.26) / $19.26 = 394.1% ROTCE 6.3% → 0.32x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

5.5%
11.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (5.5%) vs. cost of equity (11.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.53x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 5.5% vs. 11.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $36.26 tangible book, implying $73.20 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (9 analysts) $24.00
Analyst Range $24.00 – $24.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 205%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
⚠ Return on equity (5.5%) is below the minimum investors require (11.2%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $24.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 205% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly