First Financial Bankshares, Inc. logo FFIN - First Financial Bankshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 12
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $35.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $35.00
LOW: $35.00
MEDIAN: $35.00
CONSENSUS: $35.00
DOWNSIDE: 0.91%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 21.0% above fair value
Current Price $35.32
Bear Case $19.43 45.0% downside ($19.43 - $35.32) / $35.32 = -45.0% ROTCE 11.9% → 1.62x TBV
Fair Value $29.20 17.3% downside ($29.20 - $35.32) / $35.32 = -17.3% ROTCE 15.8% → 2.44x TBV
Bull Case $35.06 0.7% downside ($35.06 - $35.32) / $35.32 = -0.7% ROTCE 18.2% → 2.93x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

15.8%
8.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (15.8%) vs. cost of equity (8.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.16x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $35.00 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $29.20 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly