AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies First Financial Bankshares, Inc. as a Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers business and values it using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, then compares the result to the current market price to flag FFIN as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is First Financial Bankshares, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for FFIN comes from a P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value FFIN?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. FFIN was classified as Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers and is valued using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, built from FFIN's most recent reported fundamentals.

FFIN - First Financial Bankshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $34.67 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild

Trading 12.7% above fair value

Current Price $30.47

Bear Case $17.99 40.9% downside ($17.99 - $30.47) / $30.47 = -40.9% ROTCE 11.9% → 1.61x TBV

Fair Value $27.05 11.2% downside ($27.05 - $30.47) / $30.47 = -11.2% ROTCE 15.8% → 2.42x TBV

Bull Case $32.48 6.6% upside ($32.48 - $30.47) / $30.47 = 6.6% ROTCE 18.2% → 2.90x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

Return on Tangible Equity

15.8%

Cost of Equity

8.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (15.8%) vs. cost of equity (8.9%)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 2.72x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 15.8% vs. 8.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.42x on $11.19 tangible book, implying $27.05 per share. DDM cross-check: $22.64.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (17 analysts) $34.67

Analyst Range $34.00 – $36.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 22%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.

⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly