AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Ferguson plc's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag FERG as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Ferguson plc's fair value?

Fair value for FERG is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value FERG?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from FERG's most recent reported fundamentals.

FERG - Ferguson plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $288.60 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate

Trading 30.2% above fair value

Current Price $227.46

Bear Case $125.41 44.9% downside ($125.41 - $227.46) / $227.46 = -44.9% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Fair Value $174.67 23.2% downside ($174.67 - $227.46) / $227.46 = -23.2% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Bull Case $221.85 2.5% downside ($221.85 - $227.46) / $227.46 = -2.5% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

DCF Stage 1 Growth Rate

9.1%

Discount Rate (WACC)

11.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%

Implied Market Multiple 31.2x

Market is pricing in (growth) 14.9% vs our 9.1% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $288.60 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $174.67 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $288.60 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions