Fidelity D & D Bancorp, Inc. logo FDBC - Fidelity D & D Bancorp, Inc.

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 33.4% below fair value
Current Price $45.51
Bear Case $43.57 4.3% downside ($43.57 - $45.51) / $45.51 = -4.3% ROTCE 9.7% → 1.16x TBV
Fair Value $68.34 50.2% upside ($68.34 - $45.51) / $45.51 = 50.2% ROTCE 12.9% → 1.81x TBV
Bull Case $83.20 82.8% upside ($83.20 - $45.51) / $45.51 = 82.8% ROTCE 14.8% → 2.21x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

12.9%
8.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.9%) vs. cost of equity (8.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.21x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 12.9% vs. 8.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.81x on $37.66 tangible book, implying $68.34 per share. DDM cross-check: $53.20.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly