Fidelity D & D Bancorp, Inc. logo FDBC - Fidelity D & D Bancorp, Inc.

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 22.7% below fair value
Current Price $53.80
Bear Case $44.37 17.5% downside ($44.37 - $53.80) / $53.80 = -17.5% ROTCE 9.7% → 1.18x TBV
Fair Value $69.59 29.3% upside ($69.59 - $53.80) / $53.80 = 29.3% ROTCE 12.9% → 1.85x TBV
Bull Case $84.72 57.5% upside ($84.72 - $53.80) / $53.80 = 57.5% ROTCE 14.8% → 2.25x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

12.9%
8.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.9%) vs. cost of equity (8.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.43x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 12.9% vs. 8.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.85x on $37.66 tangible book, implying $69.59 per share. DDM cross-check: $54.63.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly