Fidelity D & D Bancorp, Inc. logo FDBC - Fidelity D & D Bancorp, Inc.

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 23.0% below fair value
Current Price $53.70
Bear Case $44.47 17.2% downside ($44.47 - $53.70) / $53.70 = -17.2% ROTCE 9.7% → 1.18x TBV
Fair Value $69.75 29.9% upside ($69.75 - $53.70) / $53.70 = 29.9% ROTCE 12.9% → 1.85x TBV
Bull Case $84.91 58.1% upside ($84.91 - $53.70) / $53.70 = 58.1% ROTCE 14.8% → 2.25x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

12.9%
8.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.9%) vs. cost of equity (8.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.43x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 12.9% vs. 8.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.85x on $37.66 tangible book, implying $69.75 per share. DDM cross-check: $53.84.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly