Fidelity D & D Bancorp, Inc. logo FDBC - Fidelity D & D Bancorp, Inc.

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 19.8% below fair value
Current Price $56.78
Bear Case $45.12 20.5% downside ($45.12 - $56.78) / $56.78 = -20.5% ROTCE 9.7% → 1.20x TBV
Fair Value $70.76 24.6% upside ($70.76 - $56.78) / $56.78 = 24.6% ROTCE 12.9% → 1.88x TBV
Bull Case $86.15 51.7% upside ($86.15 - $56.78) / $56.78 = 51.7% ROTCE 14.8% → 2.29x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

12.9%
8.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.9%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.51x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 12.9% vs. 8.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.88x on $37.64 tangible book, implying $70.76 per share. DDM cross-check: $55.01.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly