Four Corners Property Trust, Inc. logo FCPT - Four Corners Property Trust, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 10
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $27.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $30.00
LOW: $26.00
MEDIAN: $27.00
CONSENSUS: $27.67
UPSIDE: 10.42%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 12.6% below fair value
Current Price $25.06
Bear Case $23.30 7.0% downside ($23.30 - $25.06) / $25.06 = -7.0% $1.57 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $28.66 14.4% upside ($28.66 - $25.06) / $25.06 = 14.4% $1.57 FFO × 20x
Bull Case $34.03 35.8% upside ($34.03 - $25.06) / $25.06 = 35.8% $1.57 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

19.5x
1.57$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.57) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 15.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.67 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $28.66 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.8% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify