FTI Consulting, Inc. logo FCN - FTI Consulting, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $174.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $180.00
LOW: $169.00
MEDIAN: $174.50
CONSENSUS: $174.50
UPSIDE: 14.81%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 68.1% above fair value
Current Price $151.99
Bear Case $66.21 56.4% downside ($66.21 - $151.99) / $151.99 = -56.4% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $90.44 40.5% downside ($90.44 - $151.99) / $151.99 = -40.5% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $113.62 25.2% downside ($113.62 - $151.99) / $151.99 = -25.2% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

9.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 31.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) 15.2% vs our 9.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $90.44 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (13 analysts) $174.50
Analyst Range $169.00 – $180.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 48%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $174.50 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 48% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions