FTI Consulting, Inc. logo FCN - FTI Consulting, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $174.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $180.00
LOW: $169.00
MEDIAN: $174.50
CONSENSUS: $174.50
UPSIDE: 11.25%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 68.9% above fair value
Current Price $156.86
Bear Case $67.54 56.9% downside ($67.54 - $156.86) / $156.86 = -56.9% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $92.87 40.8% downside ($92.87 - $156.86) / $156.86 = -40.8% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $117.10 25.3% downside ($117.10 - $156.86) / $156.86 = -25.3% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

9.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 40.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 18.2% vs our 9.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $174.50 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $92.87 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $174.50 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions