FCN - FTI Consulting, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$174.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$180.00
LOW:
$169.00
MEDIAN:
$174.50
CONSENSUS:
$174.50
UPSIDE:
14.81%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Platform & Compounding FCF
50% confidence
Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF
Adjust Assumptions
9.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
31.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.2%
vs our 9.0% base
Plain-Language Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $90.44 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$174.50
Analyst Range
$169.00 – $180.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
48%
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $174.50 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 48% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions