First Commonwealth Financial Corporation logo FCF - First Commonwealth Financial Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 11
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $20.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $21.00
LOW: $20.00
MEDIAN: $20.50
CONSENSUS: $20.50
UPSIDE: 10.22%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 19.2% below fair value
Current Price $18.60
Bear Case $14.76 20.6% downside ($14.76 - $18.60) / $18.60 = -20.6% ROTCE 9.9% → 1.35x TBV
Fair Value $23.02 23.8% upside ($23.02 - $18.60) / $18.60 = 23.8% ROTCE 13.2% → 2.10x TBV
Bull Case $27.97 50.4% upside ($27.97 - $18.60) / $18.60 = 50.4% ROTCE 15.2% → 2.55x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.2%
8.4%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.2%) vs. cost of equity (8.4%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.64x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $20.50 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $23.02 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $10.92 (54% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly