First Community Bankshares, Inc. logo FCBC - First Community Bankshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 3
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $38.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $38.00
LOW: $38.00
MEDIAN: $38.00
CONSENSUS: $38.00
DOWNSIDE: 13.64%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 30.3% below fair value
Current Price $44.00
Bear Case $41.14 6.5% downside ($41.14 - $44.00) / $44.00 = -6.5% ROTCE 10.6% → 2.25x TBV
Fair Value $63.17 43.6% upside ($63.17 - $44.00) / $44.00 = 43.6% ROTCE 14.1% → 3.45x TBV
Bull Case $73.25 66.5% upside ($73.25 - $44.00) / $44.00 = 66.5% ROTCE 16.2% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

14.1%
6.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.1%) vs. cost of equity (6.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.4x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 14.1% vs. 6.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.45x on $18.31 tangible book, implying $63.17 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly