First Community Bankshares, Inc. logo FCBC - First Community Bankshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 3
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $38.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $38.00
LOW: $38.00
MEDIAN: $38.00
CONSENSUS: $38.00
DOWNSIDE: 10.34%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 32.4% below fair value
Current Price $42.38
Bear Case $40.83 3.7% downside ($40.83 - $42.38) / $42.38 = -3.7% ROTCE 10.6% → 2.23x TBV
Fair Value $62.70 47.9% upside ($62.70 - $42.38) / $42.38 = 47.9% ROTCE 14.1% → 3.42x TBV
Bull Case $73.25 72.8% upside ($73.25 - $42.38) / $42.38 = 72.8% ROTCE 16.2% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

14.1%
7.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.1%) vs. cost of equity (7.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.31x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 14.1% vs. 7.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.42x on $18.31 tangible book, implying $62.70 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly