First BanCorp. logo FBP - First BanCorp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 11
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $25.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $26.00
LOW: $25.00
MEDIAN: $25.50
CONSENSUS: $25.50
UPSIDE: 5.77%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 26.4% below fair value
Current Price $24.11
Bear Case $22.23 7.8% downside ($22.23 - $24.11) / $24.11 = -7.8% ROTCE 13.4% → 1.92x TBV
Fair Value $32.78 35.9% upside ($32.78 - $24.11) / $24.11 = 35.9% ROTCE 17.9% → 2.83x TBV
Bull Case $39.11 62.2% upside ($39.11 - $24.11) / $24.11 = 62.2% ROTCE 20.6% → 3.37x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

17.9%
8.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (17.9%) vs. cost of equity (8.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.94x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $25.50 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $32.78 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $25.50 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 38% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly