First BanCorp. logo FBP - First BanCorp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 12
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $29.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $32.00
LOW: $25.00
MEDIAN: $31.00
CONSENSUS: $29.75
UPSIDE: 8.70%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 24.0% below fair value
Current Price $27.37
Bear Case $24.43 10.7% downside ($24.43 - $27.37) / $27.37 = -10.7% ROTCE 13.4% → 1.94x TBV
Fair Value $36.03 31.6% upside ($36.03 - $27.37) / $27.37 = 31.6% ROTCE 17.9% → 2.86x TBV
Bull Case $42.98 57.0% upside ($42.98 - $27.37) / $27.37 = 57.0% ROTCE 20.6% → 3.41x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

17.9%
8.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (17.9%) vs. cost of equity (8.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.17x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 17.9% vs. 8.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.86x on $12.61 tangible book, implying $36.03 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (17 analysts) $29.75
Analyst Range $25.00 – $32.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 21%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly