AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Ford Motor Company's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag F as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Ford Motor Company's fair value?

Fair value for F is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value F?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from F's most recent reported fundamentals.

F - Ford Motor Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $16.38 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate

Trading 29.3% above fair value

Current Price $14.02

Bear Case $6.67 52.4% downside ($6.67 - $14.02) / $14.02 = -52.4% $1.30 × 7x + net cash

Fair Value $10.84 22.7% downside ($10.84 - $14.02) / $14.02 = -22.7% $1.30 × 10x + net cash

Bull Case $15.01 7.1% upside ($15.01 - $14.02) / $14.02 = 7.1% $1.30 × 12x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

9.5x

Normalized EPS

1.3$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.30)

Implied Market Multiple 10.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $16.38 from 47 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $10.84 per share.

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $16.38 (from 47 analysts). Our estimate is 48% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing