Ford Motor Company 6.500% Notes logo F-PD - Ford Motor Company 6.500% Notes

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 160.3% above fair value
Current Price $22.03
Bear Case $5.21 76.4% downside ($5.21 - $22.03) / $22.03 = -76.4% $1.30 × 7x + net cash
Fair Value $8.46 61.6% downside ($8.46 - $22.03) / $22.03 = -61.6% $1.30 × 10x + net cash
Bull Case $11.72 46.8% downside ($11.72 - $22.03) / $22.03 = -46.8% $1.30 × 12x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

9.5x
1.3$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.30)

Implied Market Multiple 16.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $1.30 at a 10x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $8.46 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 2.4x.

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
⚠ Price-to-book value of 2.4x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing