Extreme Networks, Inc. logo EXTR - Extreme Networks, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $26.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $28.00
LOW: $25.00
MEDIAN: $26.50
CONSENSUS: $26.50
UPSIDE: 3.52%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 103.3% above fair value
Current Price $25.60
Bear Case $10.19 60.2% downside ($10.19 - $25.60) / $25.60 = -60.2% 5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $12.59 50.8% downside ($12.59 - $25.60) / $25.60 = -50.8% 8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $14.79 42.2% downside ($14.79 - $25.60) / $25.60 = -42.2% 10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.5%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (8% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 32%
Implied Market Multiple 50.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $26.50 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $12.59 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $26.50 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 70% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions