Extreme Networks, Inc. logo EXTR - Extreme Networks, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $33.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $39.00
LOW: $28.00
MEDIAN: $34.00
CONSENSUS: $33.67
UPSIDE: 2.31%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 128.7% above fair value
Current Price $32.91
Bear Case $11.64 64.6% downside ($11.64 - $32.91) / $32.91 = -64.6% 5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $14.39 56.3% downside ($14.39 - $32.91) / $32.91 = -56.3% 8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $16.90 48.6% downside ($16.90 - $32.91) / $32.91 = -48.6% 10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.5%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (8% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 32%
Implied Market Multiple 65.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) 27.0% vs our 7.5% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $33.67 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $14.39 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $33.67 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions