Is EXPGY undervalued?

AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Experian plc's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag EXPGY as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Experian plc's fair value?

Fair value for EXPGY is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value EXPGY?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from EXPGY's most recent reported fundamentals.

EXPGY - Experian plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild

Trading 13.5% above fair value

Current Price $34.93

Bear Case $24.63 29.5% downside ($24.63 - $34.93) / $34.93 = -29.5% $1.91 × 13x P/E

Fair Value $30.79 11.9% downside ($30.79 - $34.93) / $34.93 = -11.9% $1.91 × 16x P/E

Bull Case $36.94 5.8% upside ($36.94 - $34.93) / $34.93 = 5.8% $1.91 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

16.2x

Adjusted EPS

1.91$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.91, the base-case value is $30.79 per share.

Warnings

⚠ The company pays out 80% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples