Is EXPGY undervalued?

AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Experian plc as a Stable Earnings Power business and values it using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag EXPGY as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Experian plc's fair value?

Fair value for EXPGY comes from a P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Stable Earnings Power classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value EXPGY?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. EXPGY was classified as Stable Earnings Power and is valued using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, built from EXPGY's most recent reported fundamentals.

EXPGY - Experian plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 41.8% above fair value

Current Price $37.56

Bear Case $21.19 43.6% downside ($21.19 - $37.56) / $37.56 = -43.6% $1.64 × 13x P/E

Fair Value $26.49 29.5% downside ($26.49 - $37.56) / $37.56 = -29.5% $1.64 × 16x P/E

Bull Case $31.79 15.4% downside ($31.79 - $37.56) / $37.56 = -15.4% $1.64 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

16.2x

Adjusted EPS

1.64$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 22.9x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.64, the base-case value is $26.49 per share.

Warnings

⚠ The company pays out 80% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples