Exelon Corporation logo EXC - Exelon Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 14
HOLD 21
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $48.91 DETAILS
HIGH: $55.00
LOW: $41.00
MEDIAN: $49.00
CONSENSUS: $48.91
UPSIDE: 6.93%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 0.8% above fair value
Current Price $45.74
Bear Case $39.69 13.2% downside ($39.69 - $45.74) / $45.74 = -13.2% $2.74 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $45.36 0.8% downside ($45.36 - $45.74) / $45.74 = -0.8% $2.74 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $51.03 11.6% upside ($51.03 - $45.74) / $45.74 = 11.6% $2.74 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
2.74$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $48.91 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $45.36 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $31.42 (below our primary estimate by 28%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples