Evergy, Inc. logo EVRG - Evergy, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 9
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $90.14 DETAILS
HIGH: $99.00
LOW: $82.00
MEDIAN: $91.00
CONSENSUS: $90.14
UPSIDE: 4.78%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 29.5% above fair value
Current Price $86.03
Bear Case $58.15 32.4% downside ($58.15 - $86.03) / $86.03 = -32.4% $3.66 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $66.45 22.8% downside ($66.45 - $86.03) / $86.03 = -22.8% $3.66 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $74.76 13.1% downside ($74.76 - $86.03) / $86.03 = -13.1% $3.66 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
3.66$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 23.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $90.14 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $66.45 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $73.56 (above our primary estimate by 26%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $90.14 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples