Evergy, Inc. logo EVRG - Evergy, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 9
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $92.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $97.00
LOW: $87.00
MEDIAN: $92.50
CONSENSUS: $92.25
UPSIDE: 13.86%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 38.4% above fair value
Current Price $81.02
Bear Case $51.24 36.8% downside ($51.24 - $81.02) / $81.02 = -36.8% $3.66 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $58.56 27.7% downside ($58.56 - $81.02) / $81.02 = -27.7% $3.66 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $65.88 18.7% downside ($65.88 - $81.02) / $81.02 = -18.7% $3.66 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
3.66$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.66, the base-case value is $58.56 per share. DDM cross-check: $71.76.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (18 analysts) $92.25
Analyst Range $87.00 – $97.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 37%

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $71.76 (above our primary estimate by 23%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $92.25 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples