Evercore Inc. logo EVR - Evercore Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 10
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $290.40 DETAILS
HIGH: $338.00
LOW: $150.00
MEDIAN: $318.00
CONSENSUS: $290.40
UPSIDE: 6.82%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 9.9% below fair value
Current Price $271.86
Bear Case $211.30 22.3% downside ($211.30 - $271.86) / $271.86 = -22.3% ROTCE 20.0% → 1.86x TBV
Fair Value $301.86 11.0% upside ($301.86 - $271.86) / $271.86 = 11.0% ROTCE 25.0% → 2.44x TBV
Bull Case $392.42 44.3% upside ($392.42 - $271.86) / $271.86 = 44.3% ROTCE 30.0% → 3.02x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

33.4%
12.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (33.4%) vs. cost of equity (12.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 5.94x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 33.4% vs. 12.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.44x on $45.78 tangible book, implying $301.86 per share. DDM cross-check: $43.62.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (22 analysts) $290.40
Analyst Range $150.00 – $338.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 4%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $43.62 (86% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly