Evercore Inc. logo EVR - Evercore Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 9
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $490.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $930.00
LOW: $350.00
MEDIAN: $376.00
CONSENSUS: $490.00
UPSIDE: 46.38%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 4.1% below fair value
Current Price $334.75
Bear Case $244.22 27.0% downside ($244.22 - $334.75) / $334.75 = -27.0% ROTCE 20.0% → 1.88x TBV
Fair Value $348.89 4.2% upside ($348.89 - $334.75) / $334.75 = 4.2% ROTCE 25.0% → 3.47x TBV
Bull Case $453.57 35.5% upside ($453.57 - $334.75) / $334.75 = 35.5% ROTCE 30.0% → 3.06x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

33.4%
12.5%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (33.4%) vs. cost of equity (12.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 7.31x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $490.00 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $348.89 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $43.55 (86% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $490.00 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly