EverQuote, Inc. logo EVER - EverQuote, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 4
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $28.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $28.00
LOW: $28.00
MEDIAN: $28.00
CONSENSUS: $28.00
UPSIDE: 28.50%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 75% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 65.4% below fair value
Current Price $21.79
Bear Case $42.12 93.3% upside ($42.12 - $21.79) / $21.79 = 93.3% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $63.03 189.3% upside ($63.03 - $21.79) / $21.79 = 189.3% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $85.86 294.0% upside ($85.86 - $21.79) / $21.79 = 294.0% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

14.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 9.4x
Market is pricing in (growth) -1.5% vs our 14.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $63.03 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (13 analysts) $28.00
Analyst Range $28.00 – $28.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 125%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $28.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 125% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions