EverQuote, Inc. logo EVER - EverQuote, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 4
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $22.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $28.00
LOW: $18.00
MEDIAN: $22.50
CONSENSUS: $22.75
DOWNSIDE: 8.38%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 75% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 54.6% below fair value
Current Price $24.83
Bear Case $36.59 47.3% upside ($36.59 - $24.83) / $24.83 = 47.3% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $54.72 120.4% upside ($54.72 - $24.83) / $24.83 = 120.4% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $74.51 200.1% upside ($74.51 - $24.83) / $24.83 = 200.1% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

14.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 10.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) 0.7% vs our 14.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $22.75 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $54.72 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $22.75 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 176% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions