EverCommerce Inc. logo EVCM - EverCommerce Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 4
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $12.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $14.00
LOW: $10.00
MEDIAN: $13.00
CONSENSUS: $12.33
UPSIDE: 55.68%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 29.4% below fair value
Current Price $7.92
Bear Case $8.10 2.2% upside ($8.10 - $7.92) / $7.92 = 2.2% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $11.22 41.6% upside ($11.22 - $7.92) / $7.92 = 41.6% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $14.19 79.2% upside ($14.19 - $7.92) / $7.92 = 79.2% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 15.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 5.1% vs our 8.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $11.22 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (15 analysts) $12.33
Analyst Range $10.00 – $14.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 9%

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 162% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions