Eaton Corporation plc logo ETN - Eaton Corporation plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 25
HOLD 14
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $431.88 DETAILS
HIGH: $500.00
LOW: $350.00
MEDIAN: $440.50
CONSENSUS: $431.88
UPSIDE: 8.37%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 50.3% above fair value
Current Price $398.52
Bear Case $231.98 41.8% downside ($231.98 - $398.52) / $398.52 = -41.8% $11.54 × 15x P/E
Fair Value $265.13 33.5% downside ($265.13 - $398.52) / $398.52 = -33.5% $11.54 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $298.27 25.2% downside ($298.27 - $398.52) / $398.52 = -25.2% $11.54 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.8x
11.54$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 34.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $431.88 from 39 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $265.13 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $282.91 (above our primary estimate by 46%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $431.88 (from 39 analysts). Our estimate is 55% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples