Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. logo ETD - Ethan Allen Interiors Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 0
HOLD 10
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $24.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $24.00
LOW: $24.00
MEDIAN: $24.00
CONSENSUS: $24.00
UPSIDE: 21.58%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 36.9% below fair value
Current Price $19.74
Bear Case $27.36 38.6% upside ($27.36 - $19.74) / $19.74 = 38.6% $2.07 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $31.27 58.4% upside ($31.27 - $19.74) / $19.74 = 58.4% $2.07 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $35.18 78.2% upside ($35.18 - $19.74) / $19.74 = 78.2% $2.07 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
2.07$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 9.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $24.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $31.27 per share.

Warnings

The company pays out 90% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $24.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 38% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples