Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. logo ETD - Ethan Allen Interiors Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 0
HOLD 10
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $22.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $22.00
LOW: $22.00
MEDIAN: $22.00
CONSENSUS: $22.00
DOWNSIDE: 6.26%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 41.2% below fair value
Current Price $23.47
Bear Case $34.94 48.9% upside ($34.94 - $23.47) / $23.47 = 48.9% $2.50 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $39.94 70.2% upside ($39.94 - $23.47) / $23.47 = 70.2% $2.50 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $44.93 91.4% upside ($44.93 - $23.47) / $23.47 = 91.4% $2.50 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
2.5$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 9.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.50, the base-case value is $39.94 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (10 analysts) $22.00
Analyst Range $22.00 – $22.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 82%

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 60%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 283% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $22.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 82% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples