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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 50.6% below fair value
Current Price $11.56
Bear Case $18.71 61.8% upside ($18.71 - $11.56) / $11.56 = 61.8% $1.56 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $23.38 102.3% upside ($23.38 - $11.56) / $11.56 = 102.3% $1.56 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $28.06 142.7% upside ($28.06 - $11.56) / $11.56 = 142.7% $1.56 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
1.56$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 7.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.56, the base-case value is $23.38 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples