AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. as a Real Estate Investment Trust business and values it using P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag ESRT as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for ESRT comes from a P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Real Estate Investment Trust classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value ESRT?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. ESRT was classified as Real Estate Investment Trust and is valued using P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple, built from ESRT's most recent reported fundamentals.

ESRT - Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $5.25 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 74.2% below fair value

Current Price $4.54

Bear Case $14.52 219.8% upside ($14.52 - $4.54) / $4.54 = 219.8% $1.41 FFO × 14x

Fair Value $17.60 287.7% upside ($17.60 - $4.54) / $4.54 = 287.7% $1.41 FFO × 17x

Bull Case $20.69 355.7% upside ($20.69 - $4.54) / $4.54 = 355.7% $1.41 FFO × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

17.0x

FFO per Share

1.41$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.41) × diversified P/FFO multiple

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 3.2x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.41 FFO/share with a 17x diversified REIT multiple, the base-case value is $17.60 per share. Dividend yield: 3.1%. DDM cross-check: $2.61.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (16 analysts) $5.25

Analyst Range $5.00 – $5.50

Divergence from AlphaVal 235%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $2.61 (85% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $5.25 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 235% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify