Esquire Financial Holdings, Inc. logo ESQ - Esquire Financial Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 2
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $125.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $125.00
LOW: $125.00
MEDIAN: $125.00
CONSENSUS: $125.00
UPSIDE: 12.82%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 17.4% below fair value
Current Price $110.80
Bear Case $126.58 14.2% upside ($126.58 - $110.80) / $110.80 = 14.2% ROTCE 13.2% → 3.78x TBV
Fair Value $134.08 21.0% upside ($134.08 - $110.80) / $110.80 = 21.0% ROTCE 17.6% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $134.08 21.0% upside ($134.08 - $110.80) / $110.80 = 21.0% ROTCE 20.2% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

17.6%
6.4%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (17.6%) vs. cost of equity (6.4%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.31x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 17.6% vs. 6.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $33.52 tangible book, implying $134.08 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly