Esquire Financial Holdings, Inc. logo ESQ - Esquire Financial Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 2
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $125.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $125.00
LOW: $125.00
MEDIAN: $125.00
CONSENSUS: $125.00
UPSIDE: 9.42%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 14.8% below fair value
Current Price $114.24
Bear Case $129.81 13.6% upside ($129.81 - $114.24) / $114.24 = 13.6% ROTCE 13.2% → 3.87x TBV
Fair Value $134.08 17.4% upside ($134.08 - $114.24) / $114.24 = 17.4% ROTCE 17.6% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $134.08 17.4% upside ($134.08 - $114.24) / $114.24 = 17.4% ROTCE 20.2% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

17.6%
6.4%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (17.6%) vs. cost of equity (6.4%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.41x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 17.6% vs. 6.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $33.52 tangible book, implying $134.08 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly