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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $141.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $142.00
LOW: $140.00
MEDIAN: $141.00
CONSENSUS: $141.00
UPSIDE: 53.54%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 56.3% above fair value
Current Price $91.83
Bear Case $41.04 55.3% downside ($41.04 - $91.83) / $91.83 = -55.3% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $58.76 36.0% downside ($58.76 - $91.83) / $91.83 = -36.0% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $75.03 18.3% downside ($75.03 - $91.83) / $91.83 = -18.3% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 34.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $141.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $58.76 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $141.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 73% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions