AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Ero Copper Corp. as a Other Commodity Producers business and values it using FCF at Commodity Price Scenarios, then compares the result to the current market price to flag ERO as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Ero Copper Corp.'s fair value?

Fair value for ERO comes from a FCF at Commodity Price Scenarios model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Other Commodity Producers classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value ERO?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. ERO was classified as Other Commodity Producers and is valued using FCF at Commodity Price Scenarios, built from ERO's most recent reported fundamentals.

ERO - Ero Copper Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $31.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Other Commodity Producers 80% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Commodity Price Scenarios

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 347.6% above fair value

Current Price $38.25

Bear Case $2.27 94.1% downside ($2.27 - $38.25) / $38.25 = -94.1% FCF −30% × 10x

Fair Value $8.55 77.7% downside ($8.55 - $38.25) / $38.25 = -77.7% Current FCF × 13x

Bull Case $16.70 56.3% downside ($16.70 - $38.25) / $38.25 = -56.3% FCF +30% × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

FCF Price Sensitivity

0.0%

EV/FCF Multiple

13.0x

Key Value Driver

Commodity price outlook and production volume

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 41.4x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

At current commodity prices with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $8.55 per share. Range: $2.27 to $16.70.

Warnings

ℹ Demand trends (construction, electric vehicles, food production) matter more than supply headlines. Focus on who's buying the commodity and why.

⚠ Mines and reserves eventually run out. Standard models undercount this risk — the company must keep finding or buying new resources just to maintain its value.

Key Risks

AISC vs. cash cost distinction: always use AISC for breakeven analysis
Single-asset companies carry significantly higher risk — widen scenario range
Mine permitting takes 10-20 years — growth optionality often priced in optimistically