Equity Residential logo EQR - Equity Residential

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 16
HOLD 28
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $71.56 DETAILS
HIGH: $78.50
LOW: $63.00
MEDIAN: $71.50
CONSENSUS: $71.56
UPSIDE: 8.10%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 22.8% below fair value
Current Price $66.20
Bear Case $72.36 9.3% upside ($72.36 - $66.20) / $66.20 = 9.3% $5.69 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $85.78 29.6% upside ($85.78 - $66.20) / $66.20 = 29.6% $5.69 FFO × 19x
Bull Case $99.21 49.9% upside ($99.21 - $66.20) / $66.20 = 49.9% $5.69 FFO × 22x

Adjust Assumptions

19.0x
5.69$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($5.69) × residential P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 11.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $71.56 from 46 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $85.78 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $53.80 (41% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $71.56 (from 46 analysts). Our estimate is 28% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify