EquipmentShare.com Inc. logo EQPT - EquipmentShare.com Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $44.63 DETAILS
HIGH: $63.00
LOW: $31.00
MEDIAN: $41.00
CONSENSUS: $44.63
UPSIDE: 115.29%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 75% confidence

Primary model: Current EPS × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 72636.8% above fair value
Current Price $20.73
Bear Case $0.02 99.9% downside ($0.02 - $20.73) / $20.73 = -99.9% EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair Value $0.03 99.9% downside ($0.03 - $20.73) / $20.73 = -99.9% Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull Case $0.04 99.8% downside ($0.04 - $20.73) / $20.73 = -99.8% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x

Adjust Assumptions

7.5x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 5455.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Stock is 42% below 52-week high. Using current EPS at a 8x depressed multiple, base-case value is $0.03. Wide scenario range: $0.02–$0.04.

Warnings

Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Debt per share ($15.37) is more than half the stock price. With this much debt on a struggling business, the paths to recovery for shareholders are narrow.

Key Risks

  • Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
  • M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
  • Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case