Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. logo EPRT - Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 17
HOLD 3
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $37.08 DETAILS
HIGH: $40.00
LOW: $34.00
MEDIAN: $36.75
CONSENSUS: $37.08
UPSIDE: 18.35%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 16.7% below fair value
Current Price $31.33
Bear Case $31.21 0.4% downside ($31.21 - $31.33) / $31.33 = -0.4% $1.88 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $37.62 20.1% upside ($37.62 - $31.33) / $31.33 = 20.1% $1.88 FFO × 22x
Bull Case $44.03 40.5% upside ($44.03 - $31.33) / $31.33 = 40.5% $1.88 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

22.1x
1.88$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.88) × diversified P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 16.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $37.08 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $37.62 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify