Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. logo EPRT - Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 18
HOLD 2
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $36.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $40.00
LOW: $33.00
MEDIAN: $37.00
CONSENSUS: $36.75
UPSIDE: 19.71%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 18.8% below fair value
Current Price $30.70
Bear Case $31.37 2.2% upside ($31.37 - $30.70) / $30.70 = 2.2% $1.88 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $37.81 23.2% upside ($37.81 - $30.70) / $30.70 = 23.2% $1.88 FFO × 22x
Bull Case $44.25 44.1% upside ($44.25 - $30.70) / $30.70 = 44.1% $1.88 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

22.1x
1.88$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.88) × diversified P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 16.3x

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.88 FFO/share with a 22x diversified REIT multiple, the base-case value is $37.81 per share. Dividend yield: 4.0%. DDM cross-check: $29.06.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (22 analysts) $36.75
Analyst Range $33.00 – $40.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 3%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify