EPRT - Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$36.75
DETAILS
HIGH:
$40.00
LOW:
$33.00
MEDIAN:
$37.00
CONSENSUS:
$36.75
UPSIDE:
19.71%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
22.1x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.88) × diversified P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
16.3x
Plain-Language Summary
At $1.88 FFO/share with a 22x diversified REIT multiple, the base-case value is $37.81 per share. Dividend yield: 4.0%. DDM cross-check: $29.06.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$36.75
Analyst Range
$33.00 – $40.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
3%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify