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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 5
HOLD 14
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $60.83 DETAILS
HIGH: $65.50
LOW: $58.00
MEDIAN: $59.00
CONSENSUS: $60.83
UPSIDE: 3.77%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 50.6% below fair value
Current Price $58.62
Bear Case $96.88 65.3% upside ($96.88 - $58.62) / $58.62 = 65.3% $5.80 FFO × 27x
Fair Value $118.68 102.5% upside ($118.68 - $58.62) / $58.62 = 102.5% $5.80 FFO × 33x
Bull Case $140.49 139.7% upside ($140.49 - $58.62) / $58.62 = 139.7% $5.80 FFO × 39x

Adjust Assumptions

32.6x
5.8$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($5.80) × specialty P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 10.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $60.83 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $118.68 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $18.97 (86% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $60.83 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 127% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify