Edgewell Personal Care Company logo EPC - Edgewell Personal Care Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 11
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $29.83 DETAILS
HIGH: $34.00
LOW: $26.00
MEDIAN: $29.50
CONSENSUS: $29.83
UPSIDE: 4.08%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 14.4% below fair value
Current Price $28.66
Bear Case $27.58 3.8% downside ($27.58 - $28.66) / $28.66 = -3.8% $1.97 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $33.49 16.9% upside ($33.49 - $28.66) / $28.66 = 16.9% $1.97 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $39.40 37.5% upside ($39.40 - $28.66) / $28.66 = 37.5% $1.97 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
1.97$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 14.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.97, the base-case value is $33.49 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (17 analysts) $29.83
Analyst Range $26.00 – $34.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 12%

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 272%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 113% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples