Edgewell Personal Care Company logo EPC - Edgewell Personal Care Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 11
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $23.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $26.00
LOW: $21.00
MEDIAN: $23.50
CONSENSUS: $23.50
DOWNSIDE: 15.22%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 30.8% below fair value
Current Price $27.72
Bear Case $32.99 19.0% upside ($32.99 - $27.72) / $27.72 = 19.0% $2.68 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $40.07 44.5% upside ($40.07 - $27.72) / $27.72 = 44.5% $2.68 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $47.14 70.1% upside ($47.14 - $27.72) / $27.72 = 70.1% $2.68 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
2.68$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 10.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $23.50 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $40.07 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 406%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 113% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $23.50 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 94% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples