Enova International, Inc. logo ENVA - Enova International, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $199.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $210.00
LOW: $189.00
MEDIAN: $199.50
CONSENSUS: $199.50
UPSIDE: 25.32%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 7.4% below fair value
Current Price $159.19
Bear Case $120.28 24.4% downside ($120.28 - $159.19) / $159.19 = -24.4% ROTCE 20.0% → 2.11x TBV
Fair Value $171.83 7.9% upside ($171.83 - $159.19) / $159.19 = 7.9% ROTCE 25.0% → 3.33x TBV
Bull Case $223.38 40.3% upside ($223.38 - $159.19) / $159.19 = 40.3% ROTCE 30.0% → 3.42x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

29.3%
11.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (29.3%) vs. cost of equity (11.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.76x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $199.50 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $171.83 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly