Enova International, Inc. logo ENVA - Enova International, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $248.60 DETAILS
HIGH: $283.00
LOW: $200.00
MEDIAN: $270.00
CONSENSUS: $248.60
UPSIDE: 0.38%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 50.2% above fair value
Current Price $247.66
Bear Case $115.44 53.4% downside ($115.44 - $247.66) / $247.66 = -53.4% ROTCE 20.0% → 2.26x TBV
Fair Value $164.91 33.4% downside ($164.91 - $247.66) / $247.66 = -33.4% ROTCE 25.0% → 2.96x TBV
Bull Case $214.39 13.4% downside ($214.39 - $247.66) / $247.66 = -13.4% ROTCE 30.0% → 3.67x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

29.3%
11.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (29.3%) vs. cost of equity (11.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 5.85x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 29.3% vs. 11.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.96x on $42.32 tangible book, implying $164.91 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (10 analysts) $248.60
Analyst Range $200.00 – $283.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 34%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $248.60 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly