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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 5
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $265.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $280.00
LOW: $250.00
MEDIAN: $265.00
CONSENSUS: $265.00
UPSIDE: 48.78%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 44.6% above fair value
Current Price $178.12
Bear Case $107.80 39.5% downside ($107.80 - $178.12) / $178.12 = -39.5% $7.70 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $123.20 30.8% downside ($123.20 - $178.12) / $178.12 = -30.8% $7.70 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $138.60 22.2% downside ($138.60 - $178.12) / $178.12 = -22.2% $7.70 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
7.7$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 23.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $7.70, the base-case value is $123.20 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (16 analysts) $265.00
Analyst Range $250.00 – $280.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 54%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $265.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples