EnerSys logo ENS - EnerSys

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 5
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $265.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $280.00
LOW: $250.00
MEDIAN: $265.00
CONSENSUS: $265.00
UPSIDE: 16.25%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 35.5% above fair value
Current Price $227.95
Bear Case $147.15 35.4% downside ($147.15 - $227.95) / $227.95 = -35.4% $8.49 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $168.18 26.2% downside ($168.18 - $227.95) / $227.95 = -26.2% $8.49 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $189.19 17.0% downside ($189.19 - $227.95) / $227.95 = -17.0% $8.49 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
8.49$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 26.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $265.00 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $168.18 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $265.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples