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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 10.4% below fair value
Current Price $32.24
Bear Case $31.49 2.3% downside ($31.49 - $32.24) / $32.24 = -2.3% $2.03 × 16x P/E
Fair Value $35.98 11.6% upside ($35.98 - $32.24) / $32.24 = 11.6% $2.03 × 18x P/E
Bull Case $40.48 25.6% upside ($40.48 - $32.24) / $32.24 = 25.6% $2.03 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.7x
2.03$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.03, the base-case value is $35.98 per share. DDM cross-check: $244.51.

Warnings

⚠ The company pays out 270% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $244.51 (above our primary estimate by 580%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1630 USD per EUR.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples