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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 13.7% below fair value
Current Price $30.38
Bear Case $30.81 1.4% upside ($30.81 - $30.38) / $30.38 = 1.4% $1.99 × 16x P/E
Fair Value $35.22 15.9% upside ($35.22 - $30.38) / $30.38 = 15.9% $1.99 × 18x P/E
Bull Case $39.62 30.4% upside ($39.62 - $30.38) / $30.38 = 30.4% $1.99 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.7x
1.99$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.99, the base-case value is $35.22 per share. DDM cross-check: $244.51.

Warnings

⚠ The company pays out 276% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $244.51 (above our primary estimate by 594%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1382 USD per EUR.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples