enGene Holdings Inc. Warrants logo ENGNW - enGene Holdings Inc. Warrants

Price: -- --
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 75% confidence

Primary model: Current EPS × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 1759.6% above fair value
Current Price $0.27
Bear Case $0.01 96.4% downside ($0.01 - $0.27) / $0.27 = -96.4% EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair Value $0.01 94.6% downside ($0.01 - $0.27) / $0.27 = -94.6% Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull Case $0.02 92.8% downside ($0.02 - $0.27) / $0.27 = -92.8% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x

Adjust Assumptions

7.5x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 139.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Stock is 87% below 52-week high. Using current EPS at a 8x depressed multiple, base-case value is $0.01. Wide scenario range: $0.01–$0.02.

Warnings

⚠ Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
⚠ A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
ℹ The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.

Key Risks

  • Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
  • M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
  • Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case