EMN - Eastman Chemical Company
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$79.89
DETAILS
HIGH:
$88.00
LOW:
$70.00
MEDIAN:
$82.00
CONSENSUS:
$79.89
UPSIDE:
7.78%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
65% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
6.35$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.7x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $79.89 from 35 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $90.64 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 55%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 82% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $61.69 (below our primary estimate by 35%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples