Eastman Chemical Company logo EMN - Eastman Chemical Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 20
HOLD 14
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $80.13 DETAILS
HIGH: $88.00
LOW: $70.00
MEDIAN: $81.00
CONSENSUS: $80.13
UPSIDE: 18.59%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 25.5% below fair value
Current Price $67.57
Bear Case $72.57 7.4% upside ($72.57 - $67.57) / $67.57 = 7.4% $6.35 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $90.71 34.3% upside ($90.71 - $67.57) / $67.57 = 34.3% $6.35 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $108.86 61.1% upside ($108.86 - $67.57) / $67.57 = 61.1% $6.35 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
6.35$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 10.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $80.13 from 35 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $90.71 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 55%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 82% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $61.69 (below our primary estimate by 35%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples