Emera Incorporated logo EMA - Emera Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 0
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $52.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $52.00
LOW: $52.00
MEDIAN: $52.00
CONSENSUS: $52.00
UPSIDE: 11.64%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 21.3% above fair value
Current Price $46.58
Bear Case $33.61 27.9% downside ($33.61 - $46.58) / $46.58 = -27.9% $2.40 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $38.41 17.5% downside ($38.41 - $46.58) / $46.58 = -17.5% $2.40 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $43.21 7.2% downside ($43.21 - $46.58) / $46.58 = -7.2% $2.40 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
2.4$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.40, the base-case value is $38.41 per share. DDM cross-check: $30.62.

Warnings

⚠ The company pays out 88% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $30.62 (below our primary estimate by 20%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7102 USD per CAD.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples