EMA - Emera Incorporated
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$52.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$52.00
LOW:
$52.00
MEDIAN:
$52.00
CONSENSUS:
$52.00
UPSIDE:
11.64%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
2.4$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.4x
Plain-Language Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.40, the base-case value is $38.41 per share. DDM cross-check: $30.62.
Warnings
The company pays out 88% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $30.62 (below our primary estimate by 20%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7102 USD per CAD.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples