Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. logo ELS - Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 10
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $65.22 DETAILS
HIGH: $71.00
LOW: $59.00
MEDIAN: $65.00
CONSENSUS: $65.22
UPSIDE: 7.20%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 25.8% below fair value
Current Price $60.84
Bear Case $69.31 13.9% upside ($69.31 - $60.84) / $60.84 = 13.9% $3.09 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $81.97 34.7% upside ($81.97 - $60.84) / $60.84 = 34.7% $3.09 FFO × 21x
Bull Case $94.62 55.5% upside ($94.62 - $60.84) / $60.84 = 55.5% $3.09 FFO × 25x

Adjust Assumptions

21.2x
3.09$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($3.09) × residential P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 19.7x

Plain-Language Summary

At $3.09 FFO/share with a 21x residential REIT multiple, the base-case value is $81.97 per share. Dividend yield: 3.5%. DDM cross-check: $120.04.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (22 analysts) $65.22
Analyst Range $59.00 – $71.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 26%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $120.04 (46% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $65.22 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 26% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify