ELS - Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc.
Price:
--
--
|
CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
|
PRICE TARGET:
$65.22
DETAILS
HIGH:
$71.00
LOW:
$59.00
MEDIAN:
$65.00
CONSENSUS:
$65.22
UPSIDE:
7.20%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
21.2x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($3.09) × residential P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
19.7x
Plain-Language Summary
At $3.09 FFO/share with a 21x residential REIT multiple, the base-case value is $81.97 per share. Dividend yield: 3.5%. DDM cross-check: $120.04.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$65.22
Analyst Range
$59.00 – $71.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
26%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $120.04 (46% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $65.22 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 26% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify