Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. logo ELS - Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $66.40 DETAILS
HIGH: $72.00
LOW: $59.00
MEDIAN: $67.00
CONSENSUS: $66.40
UPSIDE: 10.12%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 26.1% below fair value
Current Price $60.30
Bear Case $68.99 14.4% upside ($68.99 - $60.30) / $60.30 = 14.4% $3.07 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $81.59 35.3% upside ($81.59 - $60.30) / $60.30 = 35.3% $3.07 FFO × 21x
Bull Case $94.19 56.2% upside ($94.19 - $60.30) / $60.30 = 56.2% $3.07 FFO × 25x

Adjust Assumptions

21.2x
3.07$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($3.07) × residential P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 19.7x

Plain-Language Summary

At $3.07 FFO/share with a 21x residential REIT multiple, the base-case value is $81.59 per share. Dividend yield: 3.6%. DDM cross-check: $120.04.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (21 analysts) $66.40
Analyst Range $59.00 – $72.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 23%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $120.04 (47% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify