ELS - Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$66.40
DETAILS
HIGH:
$72.00
LOW:
$59.00
MEDIAN:
$67.00
CONSENSUS:
$66.40
UPSIDE:
10.12%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
21.2x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($3.07) × residential P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
19.7x
Plain-Language Summary
At $3.07 FFO/share with a 21x residential REIT multiple, the base-case value is $81.59 per share. Dividend yield: 3.6%. DDM cross-check: $120.04.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$66.40
Analyst Range
$59.00 – $72.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
23%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $120.04 (47% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify