ELPC - Companhia Paranaense de Energia
Price:
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PRICE TARGET:
$10.40
DETAILS
HIGH:
$10.40
LOW:
$10.40
MEDIAN:
$10.40
CONSENSUS:
$10.40
DOWNSIDE:
25.55%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
2.82$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
5.0x
Plain-Language Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.82, the base-case value is $45.08 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from BRL into USD using USDBRL at 0.1979 USD per BRL.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples