Companhia Paranaense de Energia logo ELPC - Companhia Paranaense de Energia

Price: -- -- | PRICE TARGET: $10.40 DETAILS
HIGH: $10.40
LOW: $10.40
MEDIAN: $10.40
CONSENSUS: $10.40
DOWNSIDE: 25.55%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 69.0% below fair value
Current Price $13.97
Bear Case $39.44 182.4% upside ($39.44 - $13.97) / $13.97 = 182.4% $2.82 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $45.08 222.7% upside ($45.08 - $13.97) / $13.97 = 222.7% $2.82 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $50.71 263.0% upside ($50.71 - $13.97) / $13.97 = 263.0% $2.82 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
2.82$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 5.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.82, the base-case value is $45.08 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Financial statements were converted from BRL into USD using USDBRL at 0.1979 USD per BRL.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples