Encompass Health Corporation logo EHC - Encompass Health Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 20
HOLD 4
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $146.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $152.00
LOW: $140.00
MEDIAN: $146.00
CONSENSUS: $146.00
UPSIDE: 39.10%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 5.0% below fair value
Current Price $104.96
Bear Case $88.39 15.8% downside ($88.39 - $104.96) / $104.96 = -15.8% $5.79 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $110.48 5.3% upside ($110.48 - $104.96) / $104.96 = 5.3% $5.79 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $132.58 26.3% upside ($132.58 - $104.96) / $104.96 = 26.3% $5.79 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
5.79$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $146.00 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $110.48 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $146.00 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples