Encompass Health Corporation logo EHC - Encompass Health Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 21
HOLD 4
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $150.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $155.00
LOW: $144.00
MEDIAN: $151.00
CONSENSUS: $150.25
UPSIDE: 24.08%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 28.2% above fair value
Current Price $121.09
Bear Case $75.54 37.6% downside ($75.54 - $121.09) / $121.09 = -37.6% $5.54 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $94.42 22.0% downside ($94.42 - $121.09) / $121.09 = -22.0% $5.54 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $113.30 6.4% downside ($113.30 - $121.09) / $121.09 = -6.4% $5.54 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
5.54$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 21.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.54, the base-case value is $94.42 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (27 analysts) $150.25
Analyst Range $144.00 – $155.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 37%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $150.25 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples