Encompass Health Corporation logo EHC - Encompass Health Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 21
HOLD 4
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $150.20 DETAILS
HIGH: $155.00
LOW: $144.00
MEDIAN: $150.00
CONSENSUS: $150.20
UPSIDE: 19.81%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 32.8% above fair value
Current Price $125.36
Bear Case $75.54 39.7% downside ($75.54 - $125.36) / $125.36 = -39.7% $5.54 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $94.42 24.7% downside ($94.42 - $125.36) / $125.36 = -24.7% $5.54 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $113.30 9.6% downside ($113.30 - $125.36) / $125.36 = -9.6% $5.54 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
5.54$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.54, the base-case value is $94.42 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (27 analysts) $150.20
Analyst Range $144.00 – $155.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 37%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $150.20 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples