EGBN - Eagle Bancorp, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$28.67
DETAILS
HIGH:
$32.00
LOW:
$25.00
MEDIAN:
$29.00
CONSENSUS:
$28.67
UPSIDE:
9.47%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
-11.2%
9.6%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (-11.2%) vs. cost of equity (9.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.7x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $28.67 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $55.89 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (-11.2%) is below the minimum investors require (9.6%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $28.67 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 119% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly