Enterprise Financial Services Corp logo EFSC - Enterprise Financial Services Corp

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $70.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $72.00
LOW: $68.00
MEDIAN: $70.00
CONSENSUS: $70.00
UPSIDE: 19.47%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 25.0% below fair value
Current Price $58.59
Bear Case $49.51 15.5% downside ($49.51 - $58.59) / $58.59 = -15.5% ROTCE 9.4% → 1.12x TBV
Fair Value $78.17 33.4% upside ($78.17 - $58.59) / $58.59 = 33.4% ROTCE 12.6% → 1.77x TBV
Bull Case $95.36 62.8% upside ($95.36 - $58.59) / $58.59 = 62.8% ROTCE 14.5% → 2.16x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

12.6%
8.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.32x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 12.6% vs. 8.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.77x on $44.24 tangible book, implying $78.17 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (9 analysts) $70.00
Analyst Range $68.00 – $72.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 12%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly