Enterprise Financial Services Corp logo EFSC - Enterprise Financial Services Corp

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 8
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $69.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $72.00
LOW: $67.00
MEDIAN: $68.00
CONSENSUS: $69.00
UPSIDE: 5.60%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 16.0% below fair value
Current Price $65.34
Bear Case $49.25 24.6% downside ($49.25 - $65.34) / $65.34 = -24.6% ROTCE 9.4% → 1.16x TBV
Fair Value $77.76 19.0% upside ($77.76 - $65.34) / $65.34 = 19.0% ROTCE 12.6% → 1.83x TBV
Bull Case $94.87 45.2% upside ($94.87 - $65.34) / $65.34 = 45.2% ROTCE 14.5% → 2.23x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

12.6%
8.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.49x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $69.00 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $77.76 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly