Ellington Financial Inc. logo EFC-PD - Ellington Financial Inc.

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 24.2% below fair value
Current Price $23.01
Bear Case $24.99 8.6% upside ($24.99 - $23.01) / $23.01 = 8.6% $1.37 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $30.34 31.9% upside ($30.34 - $23.01) / $23.01 = 31.9% $1.37 FFO × 22x
Bull Case $35.70 55.1% upside ($35.70 - $23.01) / $23.01 = 55.1% $1.37 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

22.1x
1.37$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.37) × default P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 16.8x

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.37 FFO/share with a 22x default REIT multiple, the base-case value is $30.34 per share. Dividend yield: 7.6%. DDM cross-check: $32.61.

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
⚠ Dividend yield of 7.6% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify