Excelerate Energy, Inc. logo EE - Excelerate Energy, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 7
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $40.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $48.00
LOW: $36.00
MEDIAN: $40.00
CONSENSUS: $40.50
UPSIDE: 12.38%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 88.5% below fair value
Current Price $36.04
Bear Case $147.83 310.2% upside ($147.83 - $36.04) / $36.04 = 310.2% 14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $314.71 773.2% upside ($314.71 - $36.04) / $36.04 = 773.2% 23% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $539.17 1396.0% upside ($539.17 - $36.04) / $36.04 = 1396.0% 30% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

23.3%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (23% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 44%
Implied Market Multiple 7.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $40.50 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $314.71 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $40.50 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 903% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions