Excelerate Energy, Inc. logo EE - Excelerate Energy, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 7
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $43.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $48.00
LOW: $37.00
MEDIAN: $42.00
CONSENSUS: $43.00
UPSIDE: 10.26%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 89.5% below fair value
Current Price $39.00
Bear Case $173.35 344.5% upside ($173.35 - $39.00) / $39.00 = 344.5% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $371.54 852.7% upside ($371.54 - $39.00) / $39.00 = 852.7% 23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $639.94 1540.9% upside ($639.94 - $39.00) / $39.00 = 1540.9% 30% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

23.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (23% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 48%
Implied Market Multiple 7.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) -4.3% vs our 23.3% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $43.00 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $371.54 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $43.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 1019% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions