New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. logo EDU - New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 16
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $56.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $56.50
LOW: $56.50
MEDIAN: $56.50
CONSENSUS: $56.50
DOWNSIDE: 5.06%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 16.7% above fair value
Current Price $59.51
Bear Case $42.00 29.4% downside ($42.00 - $59.51) / $59.51 = -29.4% $3.00 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $51.00 14.3% downside ($51.00 - $59.51) / $59.51 = -14.3% $3.00 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $60.00 0.8% upside ($60.00 - $59.51) / $59.51 = 0.8% $3.00 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
3.0$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.00, the base-case value is $51.00 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (24 analysts) $56.50
Analyst Range $56.50 – $56.50
Divergence from AlphaVal 10%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples