Ennis, Inc. logo EBF - Ennis, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 11.2% below fair value
Current Price $22.12
Bear Case $19.92 9.9% downside ($19.92 - $22.12) / $22.12 = -9.9% $1.66 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $24.90 12.6% upside ($24.90 - $22.12) / $22.12 = 12.6% $1.66 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $29.88 35.1% upside ($29.88 - $22.12) / $22.12 = 35.1% $1.66 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
1.66$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 13.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.66, the base-case value is $24.90 per share. DDM cross-check: $14.61.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $14.61 (below our primary estimate by 41%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples