eBay Inc. logo EBAY - eBay Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 31
HOLD 35
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $109.87 DETAILS
HIGH: $124.00
LOW: $96.00
MEDIAN: $110.00
CONSENSUS: $109.87
DOWNSIDE: 5.08%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 38.5% above fair value
Current Price $115.75
Bear Case $73.14 36.8% downside ($73.14 - $115.75) / $115.75 = -36.8% $4.34 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $83.59 27.8% downside ($83.59 - $115.75) / $115.75 = -27.8% $4.34 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $94.04 18.8% downside ($94.04 - $115.75) / $115.75 = -18.8% $4.34 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
4.34$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 26.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $109.87 from 68 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $83.59 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $109.87 (from 68 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples