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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 31
HOLD 35
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $110.81 DETAILS
HIGH: $125.00
LOW: $96.00
MEDIAN: $110.00
CONSENSUS: $110.81
DOWNSIDE: 0.09%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 32.2% above fair value
Current Price $110.91
Bear Case $73.43 33.8% downside ($73.43 - $110.91) / $110.91 = -33.8% $4.34 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $83.92 24.3% downside ($83.92 - $110.91) / $110.91 = -24.3% $4.34 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $94.41 14.9% downside ($94.41 - $110.91) / $110.91 = -14.9% $4.34 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
4.34$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 25.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $110.81 from 68 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $83.92 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $110.81 (from 68 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples