DXP Enterprises, Inc. logo DXPE - DXP Enterprises, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $154.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $154.00
LOW: $154.00
MEDIAN: $154.00
CONSENSUS: $154.00
UPSIDE: 6.80%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 157.2% above fair value
Current Price $144.20
Bear Case $18.30 87.3% downside ($18.30 - $144.20) / $144.20 = -87.3% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $56.06 61.1% downside ($56.06 - $144.20) / $144.20 = -61.1% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $94.23 34.7% downside ($94.23 - $144.20) / $144.20 = -34.7% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.1%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 58.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $154.00 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $56.06 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $154.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 79% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions