DXP Enterprises, Inc. logo DXPE - DXP Enterprises, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $187.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $220.00
LOW: $154.00
MEDIAN: $187.00
CONSENSUS: $187.00
UPSIDE: 0.58%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 86.3% above fair value
Current Price $185.92
Bear Case $59.27 68.1% downside ($59.27 - $185.92) / $185.92 = -68.1% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $99.81 46.3% downside ($99.81 - $185.92) / $185.92 = -46.3% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $140.80 24.3% downside ($140.80 - $185.92) / $185.92 = -24.3% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.1%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 37.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 17.4% vs our 11.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $99.81 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (7 analysts) $187.00
Analyst Range $154.00 – $220.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 47%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $187.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions