Duke Energy Corporation Units 1.08.29 logo DUKU - Duke Energy Corporation Units 1.08.29

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 50.5% below fair value
Current Price $49.93
Bear Case $88.34 76.9% upside ($88.34 - $49.93) / $49.93 = 76.9% $6.31 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $100.96 102.2% upside ($100.96 - $49.93) / $49.93 = 102.2% $6.31 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $113.58 127.5% upside ($113.58 - $49.93) / $49.93 = 127.5% $6.31 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
6.31$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 7.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.31, the base-case value is $100.96 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples