Duke Energy Corporation logo DUK-PA - Duke Energy Corporation

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 75.8% below fair value
Current Price $24.42
Bear Case $88.34 261.8% upside ($88.34 - $24.42) / $24.42 = 261.8% $6.31 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $100.96 313.4% upside ($100.96 - $24.42) / $24.42 = 313.4% $6.31 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $113.58 365.1% upside ($113.58 - $24.42) / $24.42 = 365.1% $6.31 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
6.31$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 3.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.31, the base-case value is $100.96 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples